El Nino and Global Warming as it Impacts on Agriculture Like Palm Oil

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is Earth’s largest source of year-to-year climate variability with significant environmental and socio-economic impacts worldwide.  The warm phase of ENSO, the El Niño, is characterised by warmer than normal sea surface temperature across the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with an eastward shift of rainfall away from the maritime continent.  El Niño increases risks of drought and forest fires in this region where about 80% of global palm oil is produced.  The opposite conditions occur during the ENSO cold phase, La Niña, during which western Pacific-rim countries receive increased rainfall, elevating the risk of flooding there.   

The impact of ENSO is global.  Dramatic changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation in the tropical Pacific during ENSO events can induce climate phenomena in remote regions. The Indian Ocean Dipole is one clear example, which can exacerbate the impacts of ENSO over Indian Ocean-rim regions, including Indonesia.  The 1982 and 1997 El Niño events were the strongest events on modern instrumental record, only to be matched recently by the 2015 El Niño.  These events were accompanied by the positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole.  Indonesia suffered particularly severe forest fires during these years, causing disastrous haze over neighbouring countries.  There is also a tendency for strong El Niño events to be followed by a La Niña, for example in 1997-1998 in which an extreme El Niño was followed the year after by an extreme La Niña, thus depicting a swing from one extreme to another.  

This presentation will provide an overview of the scientific background of El Niño and La Niña. Are they are predictable and what should we expect in 2016-2017?  How will they behave in a warming climate? Such information has the potential in aiding resource management for agricultural industries, such as palm oil.